Resilience Reloaded

The first of these challenges is increasing supply insecurity. Conflicts, natural disasters or simply changing economic conditions mean that the availability of materials is becoming increasingly difficult to plan. “We saw this particularly clearly during the coronavirus pandemic − but even now, for example when container ships have to avoid the Red Sea or tariffs in the USA are adjusted at short notice, it is clear that planning reliability is now the exception,” says Witthaut.

At the same time, it is becoming more difficult for companies to predict future demand. Digitalization, changing consumer behavior, demographic changes and technological leaps mean that traditional sales forecasts often come to nothing. “This is not just to do with customer demand − it is changing entire business models. Anyone who makes a mistake when forecasting demand will have to pay dearly for it.”

Great hopes are pinned on digitalization. Artificial intelligence, automation and data-driven decisions all hold enormous potential. At the same time, it raises new questions: “What happens to activities that people used to do? What do companies and their employees need to know for AI to deliver correct and comprehensible results? What can AI do and what can't it do − today and in the future?” asks Witthaut. Fraunhofer IML sees great opportunities here, but also warns against exaggerated expectations.

Another factor that threatens the resilience of supply chains is the lack of qualified specialists. “Our education system is not designed for permanent change,” says Witthaut. “Lifelong learning is a buzzword − but the reality is often different.” Particularly in industries such as logistics, the pressure to innovate is enormous, while at the same time there is often a lack of suitable vocational training opportunities or strategies for passing on knowledge within the company. 

The field of regulation proved to be particularly complex during the project. Laws such as the German Supply Chain Duty of Care Act (LkSG) or the EU-wide Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) present companies with enormous challenges. “The intention is absolutely understandable − those who consume in Europe should be sure that products have been manufactured under fair and environmentally friendly conditions. But in practice, there is often a lack of clarity,” explains Witthaut.

What exactly does it mean when a company must prove that there is no child labor in its supply chain? How does a risk-based audit in multi-level, global networks work? And how can such processes be implemented for SMEs that do not have their own legal departments or compliance teams? “Practical tools and clear guidelines for action are urgently needed here,” emphasizes the research scientist. The EU Omnibus Initiative, which aims to simplify companies' reporting obligations, is a first step in this direction. However, such efforts need to be stepped up considerably.

ReSChape not only provides analyses, but also recommendations. For companies, the project offers a structured framework with which existing supply networks can be examined for weak points and strategy development. This is not about academic ideal models, but about concrete strategies with which risks can be mitigated and opportunities exploited.

Witthaut sees the work of Fraunhofer IML as a bridging function: “We try to meet companies where they are. Together, we develop design workshops, evaluate existing structures and help to develop future scenarios.” The project emphasizes not only risks, but also potential − for example through targeted nearshoring, an improved warehouse strategy or technological partnerships in Europe.

However, politicians also have a responsibility. After all, many framework conditions for resilient supply chains cannot be solved at company level. ReSChape therefore also sees itself as a driving force for the EU Commission and national legislators, for example by participating in consultations or by providing scientifically sound recommendations for simplifying and harmonizing regulatory requirements and EU policies.

A central result of the project is the realization that resilience is not a state, but a process. And this process needs structure, clarity and strategic  thinking. “We are seeing a growing awareness of the fragility of our economic systems in Europe − but also a willingness to learn from this,“ says Witthaut.

“We are seeing a growing awareness of the fragility of our economic systems in Europe − but also a willingness to learn from this“

- Dr.-Ing. Markus Witthaut

It is true that not every industry faces the same challenges and not every company needs the same solutions. However, the five key issues identified − supply uncertainty, forecasting uncertainty, digitalization, qualification and regulation − provide a framework for organizations to align their further development with.

For Fraunhofer IML, the project is not the end, but the starting point. “We have the knowledge, we have the tools − now it's about putting them into practice,“ emphasizes Witthaut. The first companies have already sought advice and further pilot projects are being planned.

The research scientist sees great potential, particularly in combination with digital offerings − such as the Open Logistics Foundation: “This non-profit status organization, which offers companies a neutral platform for the joint development of open-source software, can help to implement operational resilience − and ReSChape provides the strategic basis for this. One complements the other perfectly.“

In a world that is changing ever faster, the ability to adapt is becoming a decisive competitive factor. ReSChape shows that resilience does not have to be an abstract concept − it can be shaped in concrete terms. For companies, for politics − and for future viability of logistics in Europe.

The EU project ReSChape (https://reschape.eu/) is dedicated to the question of how European supply chains can be made more resilient, sustainable and future proof. The project analyzes social, economic and environmental changes in global value networks and develops strategies for robust supply chain management.

A central aspect of ReSChape is the identification of risks and challenges arising from current trends. Based on these findings, well-founded recommendations for action are developed for companies and political decision-makers. The project is supported by a European consortium including Fraunhofer IML, Eindhoven University of Technology and Aston University.

In addition to developing new supply chain models, ReSChape is also investigating the role of digitalization as a means of promoting social inclusion and adapting to economic and environmental changes. Various European industries such as fashion, automotive, medical engineering and mechanical engineering are being analyzed to develop industryspecific solutions. 

The project runs until September 2025 and is funded under the Horizon Europe program. The aim is to develop innovative tools to monitor and evaluate trade patterns and provide mechanisms to analyze disruptions in global value chains.

Learn more about ReSChape