Resilience – A Smart Move

Unpredictability is increasingly becoming the new political norm. This poses enormous risks for the market and the economy. In times like these, companies of all industries must be particularly well prepared for crises, according to researchers at Fraunhofer IML. While tariffs, disasters, and wars are driving the next crisis forward, technological innovations continue to evolve. Researchers offer recommendations on how companies can prepare themselves.

It is quiet in the production hall – deafeningly quiet, you might say. Every minute that no car rolls off the assembly line, no employee assembles parts, no sheet metal is welded, costs money. And all because of a few components, small components – just a few nanometers in size. The chip crisis is sending shockwaves through the automotive industry: Reuters reported back in March 2021 that VW was unable to produce around 100,000 vehicles due to the chip shortage. As Springer Professional noted at the beginning of January 2022, all car manufacturers have had to repeatedly halt production since the beginning of 2021 due to the semiconductor scarcity. An estimate available at the time from Springer Professional assumed that automobile manufacturers would be unable to produce vehicles worth 210 billion US dollars due to the chip shortage.

This decline is also affecting automotive suppliers, who are left with unsold parts, while other industries such as the game console industry are also reeling. At the time, geopolitical tensions between the US and China and the resulting tariffs that set the crisis in motion played their part as well. The companies affected agree: no one could have foreseen the extent of the crisis.

Companies need to constantly adapt to new conditions.

“In an acute crisis, however, it's not about why we didn't see it coming,“ says Tobias Jornitz, research associate at Fraunhofer IML. “It's much more important to act immediately and develop stronger resilience skills once the current crisis has been overcome!“ As head of the Fraunhofer Resilience Community, he is researching how companies can respond better to crises and thus be more resilient in the future. For the researchers at Fraunhofer IML, constantly adapting to new conditions and withstanding any unforeseeable crises and conflicts is what makes a resilient company. They emphasize how important it is for companies to strategically address their own crisis resilience – because the next crisis will not be long in coming, as current events in 2025 alone underscore. In fact, it is already here, coupled with a great deal of unpredictability.

Geopolitical tensions were just as much to blame for the chip crisis as the sudden surge in demand for cars shortly after the pandemic and natural disasters near several chip factories. The chip crisis is unique in that it combines many key challenges and megatrends that are likely to cause even more crises in the coming years.

In order to master these challenges with confidence, the researchers argue that it is essential for companies not only to return to their previous state along their value creation network after the crisis. “Adapting and transforming the supply chain to the new, changed situation after the crisis is just as important,“ emphasizes Tobias Jonitz. To do this, senior managers in companies must identify where their supply chain is most vulnerable and what factors are most likely to affect its stability, however minor they may seem. According to the resilience expert, it is often worthwhile to look beyond the boundaries of one's own company.

The cover of the Whitepaper on resilience
© Fraunhofer IML

Resilienz von Wertschöpfungsnetzwerken. Den Erfolgsfaktor systematisch erschließen

 

Read the Whitepaper

Working on your own resilience

The earlier companies identify risks alongside their supply chains and within their internal organization, the better they can prepare for crises. What sounds logical is not always a given. Often, communication between the parties involved leaves much to be desired. “To prevent supply chain disruptions, there needs to be more collaboration between the parties involved and the greatest possible openness,“ says Jornitz. Close cooperation and sufficient transparency between suppliers are central to smooth operations along the supply chain. According to Fraunhofer IML, those who want to master crises with confidence must continuously work on their own resilience. Tobias Jornitz: “Developing resilience is not a one-time activity, but a continuous process that requires the support of top management!“

Tips, tricks, and recommendations on how companies can become more resilient and transform their value creation networks are provided by researchers at Fraunhofer IML in the white paper “Resilience of Value Creation Networks – Systematically Tapping into the Success Factor“, which has been published in the series “Future Challenges in Logistics and Supply Chain Management.“

We have briefly summarized eight key recommendations here:

 

A red chess figure lies on the ground next to a white one.
© Jezper − stock.adobe.com

1. Determine resilience requirements: Companies must identify the factors that influence their supply chain and where it is particularly vulnerable.

2. Act collaboratively: All players in the supply chain must work together holistically to counteract disruptions and prevent downtime.

3. Promote openness: For proactive risk management, players throughout the value chain should be more transparent and open.

4. Use digital technologies: Digital methods can dramatically expand the scope of action available to companies.

5. Continuously adapt dynamically: In order to remain resilient in the future, stakeholders must constantly adapt to new environmental conditions and evaluate and adjust the current situation as necessary.

6. Integrate people: The connection of people with digital systems and smart machines is essential. It is a central component of supply chain transformation. Appropriate continuing education is needed to increase the necessary resilience.

7. Build a culture of resilience: People still make the decisions in companies, they must see resilience as their responsibility. Current business models and organizational culture must be questioned and adapted by management.

8. Preserve and apply knowledge: To create a suitable resilience strategy, stakeholders must gather, utilize their knowledge from past crises and use it to develop a strategy.

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Tobias Jornitz M. Sc.

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Tobias Jornitz M. Sc.

Research Scientist Visibility & Finance

Phone +49 231 9743-340